Forex Analysis & Reviews: 21.02.2023 - Oil to get rid of Fear

Live Chat

Equipe InstaForex Loprais - Participante oficial do rali Dakar

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Abertura de Conta

Veja também

Condições de Negociações

Análise Forex

Gráficos

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

Como começar a negociar

Informação útil

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

Sistema PAMM

Sistema ForexCopy

Investimentos passivos

Contas OYS

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Página Principal

Área do Parceiro

Vantagens para Afiliados

Registro

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Concursos

Eventos

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Fórums

Estamos nas redes sociais

Humor Forex

Portal Forex

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

História

Porque nos escolher

InstaSport

Regulamentação

Notícias da Empresa

Premiações

Estrelas da InstaForex

InstaForex Offline

Principais documentos

Responsabilidade Social

InstaForex - Parceiro oficial do Dragon Racing

21.02.2023 10:25 AM

Oil to get rid of Fear

If there is no hard landing of the U.S. economy in 2023, what are investors afraid of? Why are American stock indices falling? Why is oil going down, despite all the positive forecasts from Goldman Sachs regarding commodities? The problem is that the current strength of the U.S. economy allows the Fed to continue aggressively raising the federal funds rate. And that raises the fear of a longer and deeper recession. If not this year, then next. How long will Brent be afraid?

According to A/S Global Risk Management, sooner or later the market will take into account the Fed's tighter monetary balance in quotes and turn its attention to China, whose oil imports will reach a record level this year, and rising demand in India, the third largest consumer of oil in the world. This will likely happen in the second half of the year. In my opinion, a little earlier – in the second quarter.

Data showing the worst traffic jams in China's major cities since early 2022 and a return to pre-pandemic levels in the number of people using the subway suggest that the recovery of the Chinese economy is in full swing. Further evidence is the People's Bank China keeping key interest rates at current levels because activity is already high.

China's irrepressible demand for oil is evidenced by the growth of oil imports from Russia to 1.52 million bpd, just below the record set almost three years ago. Total purchases of oil and fuel oil reached 1.66 million bpd, which is a new historical peak. The previous one was recorded in April 2020, when Asia's largest economy was coming out of quarantine.

Dynamics of Chinese imports of Russian oil and fuel oil

Thanks to China, Russia managed to avoid severe export losses. The market is not worried about supply problems because the reduction in oil supply to Europe from the Russian Federation decreased in 2022 by only 300,000 bpd. The figure should fall to zero within a year of the embargo in early December. Moreover, the message about Moscow's intention to reduce production by 5%, which initially caused the growth of Brent quotes, actually turned out to be not so terrible. Despite this, producers intend to maintain exports at current levels.

The rapid recovery of Chinese economy may soon make itself felt. In the meantime, the market is fixated on the Federal Reserve's monetary restriction cycle and cautiously looking at the minutes of the February meeting. If its language turns out to be more hawkish, strengthening U.S. dollar will put additional pressure on oil.

Technically, there was a fourth rebound from the trend line on Brent's daily chart, after which an inside bar was formed. As a rule, it is won back by placing pending buy orders from $84.4 and sell orders from $82.9 per barrel. At the same time, a failed test does not mean abandoning the strategy. The optimal option is a fiasco with sales followed by a return to the bar's highs and the formation of longs.

You have already liked this post today

*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

Se você tiver alguma dúvida sobre conteúdo, por favor, entre em contato com editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Mais artigos deste autor

Inscrição do e-mail

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Selecionar intervalo de tempo

min

hora

horas

dia

Comece a negociar

Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.

Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.

Recommended Stories

Dólar dos EUA: Previsão semanal

Euro sob ameaça de um golpe

Surge um novo problema para os Estados Unidos - o teto da dívida (expectativa de que a #SPX e a #NDX retomem sua queda após uma provável recuperação de curto prazo)

Em que prestar atenção em 14 de março? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

Trump e suas políticas continuam sendo o foco dos mercados (existe a possibilidade de uma queda corretiva no EUR/USD e no GBP/USD)

O euro se libertou do medo

Inflação nos EUA alivia o Fed, mas preocupa os mercados

Principais análises